State polls point to revival of BJP, burial of Congress

The diminishing returns for the Congress are attributable more to its lack of credibility and its sole dependence on minority vote bank. Strong regional parties are eating into its vote bank and the Congress does not have anything to offer them in turn. BJP has learnt from its mistakes in Delhi and Bihar. It realised early enough, unlike the Congress, that it had to have an alliance – a broader coalition to signal that it has a pan-Assamese presence and acceptance

Burying the ghosts from the past is not an easy job for the leaders of political parties. Ask the Congress, it would admit how difficult it is to come out of a typecast or mould in taking on new challenges. The results of the Assembly elections prove that the BJP has learnt from its mistakes in Delhi and Bihar. This should go to the credit of its Central leadership.

For those closely watching Assam in the last few years, it was easier to decipher the political narrative that mattered to the people. Assamese have experimented sufficiently all these years with the Congress and then throwing out the party, having fallen in love with its own lads who led the AASU movement against the domination of outsiders, and then bringing back the Congress again.

This time around, voters were not choosing between a Rahul Gandhi and a Narendra Modi, or between a Modi and a Tarun Gogoi. The elections in Assam were all about electing a party for good governance and electing a Chief Minister who would deliver. Assamese opted for a change of guard listening to the political discourses that were local-centric.

The BJP enticed the voters of the valley as well as those of the hills in the same breath exploiting the anti-incumbency factor fully, while harping on the failures of the Gogoi Government in delivering. Central government's North East push to infrastructure in the last two years too gave it enough leverage over the Gogoi government.

The Marwari party or a cow-belt party, as it had come to be known all these years, shed the image completely, thanks to this local narrative and the "good work of the RSS," as the party sources have been claiming. They did not overplay the issue of illegal immigrants and did not make it a Hindu vs Muslim issue. They simply converted it into an illegal immigrant vs Assamese discourse.

The Congress leadership was hoping against hopes that the outcome would throw a hung Assembly at least. Some surveys commissioned by the party as well a couple of independent ones, just before the elections, indicated that it could end up in a neck and neck position. One of the reasons for the optimism of the Congress was that the BJP-AGP alliance was being rocked by dissidence.

The BJP realised early enough unlike the Congress that it had to have an alliance – a broader coalition to signal that it has a pan-Assamese presence and acceptance. Making the AGP its ally, despite the fissures that appeared in the party over the same, chipping away a part of the Congress leadership, making Bodoland People's Front and a couple of more smaller groups, its partners, it rightly gambled.

BJP’s most intelligent move, however, was in picking up a tribal (Sonowal Kachari) Sarbananda Sonowal, as its coalition face. Voters could immediately identify with a local leader – one who is acceptable to all – and with the campaign of the allies centred on development issues. Personal choices of food, dress code, number of children that Hindus should have etc were not on the menu.

This could have gone very much against the BJP in Assam where eating anything and everything is OK with several groups and communities. The Assamese have been a victim of language imperialism too and would not like any big brother attitude which the BJP was careful enough not to impose on them. And in the valley, the Assamese and Bengalese seem to have buried their hatchet under the broad rainbow coalition. "Intolerance" was not on display in any sense.

The Congress on the other hand, would not agree with the AIUDF of Badruddin Ajmal, though there are similarities to their vote banks. It's select 'going alone" policy remained puzzling to the voters as no one was in a position to say why it chose to do so in some State but sailed with someone else in some other States.

Secondly, with the BJP pinning it down on governance issues, the Congress leadership never had a chance to counter effectively the former's challenge. In say, Bihar or Delhi, Lalu-Nitish combine or one Arvind Kejriwal could divert people's attention from the developmental issues as too many intolerant voices waded into the electoral waters only to muddy them further.

Thirdly, Modi and Amit Shah were not looming large on the horizon during the elections. Modi hardly addressed three public meetings and confined his speeches to development and local issues and local idols. This was a calculated move. BJP knew that any excess projection of the two could be disastrous. After all, the elections were all about local leaders and local issues. Hence, this dignified distancing away of Modi and Amit Shah was a soothing balm for the Assamese voters.

The BJP can now sit back and relax as its hard work paid in North East. It has thrown up a local leader in Sarbanand Sonowal who could be its face for some years hence forth. And Congress does not have any as of now. As is its wont, it has not allowed any one to grow so that one could pick up the mantle in the absence of Tarun Gogoi.

BJP has changed the tact and is once again concentrating on strengthening the local faces everywhere in the country. It planned and worked for a toehold but got a firm foothold now in the North East. This success would go a long way in shaping its politics not only in the region but also in West Bengal.

That is a lesson that the Congress does not seem to be interested in learning at all. Though it is being accepted in the alliances, it is only as a minor player dependent on the bigger allies’ munificence. Be it in Bihar in the past or in West Bengal where it joined hands with the Left now, the party is really facing an identity crisis.

The diminishing returns for the Congress are attributable more to its lack of credibility and its sole dependence on minority vote bank. Strong regional parties are eating into its vote bank and the Congress does not have anything to offer them in turn.

Take for example the case of Telangana where it should have at least allowed an alliance with the TRS, which it refused while not permitting a local strongman from emerging only to lose ground. Had Congress joined hands with the TRS it would have been a different story.

There would be no introspection anyway which would be worthwhile in the Congress apart from a hasty conclusion that Rahul Gandhi should take over now as the President. Its voices are already claiming that neither Rahul nor Sonia is responsible for the debacle in Assam and Kerala.

But who is responsible for not sailing with Didi in West Bengal? Why could not the high command sense the opportunity? Or say with Badruddin Ajmal in Assam? Prudence evades the party.

If one is not open to reason or willing to adapt to the changing scenario, oblivion could be the destination. At least Bihar should have taught a lesson to the Congress. It has not. There lies the story of a revival and also of a burial. The BJP proved the first and the Congress, is an example of the second!

By W Chandrakanth