Trump rant puts Paris Climate Pact in peril 

The world heralded a historic treaty under the aegis of the United Nations on 12th December, 2015 in Paris. This accord is known as Climatic Change Agreement or Paris Accord. The Paris Accord is negotiated among 195 countries and opened for ratification from 22nd April, 2016 as this day is popularly known as the World Earth Day. So far, it is ratified by 111 countries. The treaty aims at green house gas emission mitigation from 2020. The agreement states that it would enter into force (and thus become fully effective) only if 55 countries that produce at least 55% of the world's greenhouse gas emissions ratify it.

During the signing of the treaty, the Foreign Minister of France, Laurant Fabius, termed the treaty as a “historic turning point" in reducing global warming and a tool for preserving the world for coming generations. The most industrialised country in the world, the United States, which accounts for 17.89% of total emissions of the world, at the time of negotiations for the agreement opposed tooth and nail major emission reducing provisions.

However, good sense prevailed upon Barack Obama to accept the agreement. Subsequently, it has to honour the commitment as it ratified the treaty on 3rd September, 2016, which domestically came into force from 4th November, 2016 in the US. During the just concluded US elections, the Republican Party President-elect, Donald Trump, openly declared that if he were to be elected to the office of President, he would pull out from the historic treaty.

Under traditional international law doctrine ‘rebus sic stantibus,’ a state may withdraw from a treaty which has no withdrawal provisions, only if there has been some substantial unforeseen change in circumstances, such as when the object of the treaty becomes moot or when a material breach is committed by a treaty party. Without such events, Donald Trump during the bitterly fought campaign announced to effect withdrawal of the US from the Paris accord.

Trump believes that climate change is a hoax. His stance of withdrawal is not tenable under the doctrine and it does not provide such withdrawal as the treaty is under process of just operation. After the declaration of presidential results in the United States, in many cities across the nations, anti-Trump marches were taken out against his election and it had a cascading effect on his government formation and policies.

Trump after being elected is taking U-turn on many major issues. During his election victory speech, he openly admitted that he was the President for all Americans. Meanwhile, in the United States, members of Congress, global leaders called 360 plus group consisting of giant multinational companies such as Du Pont, HP, Nike, Kellog etc strongly advocated for full implementation of the Paris Agreement and that the US should reaffirm its commitment to the Paris Agreement.

Instrumental in the success of the negotiations on the agreement, the Secretary General of the United Nations, Ban ki Moon, stated that, “I spoke to the President-elect last week and I remain optimistic about our efforts to control climate change.” He hopes that the United States will not abandon the Paris Agreement under the new government. Bank Ki Moon further reacted that market forces had begun to respond to incentives for producing clean energy and that Trump, being a businessman, ought to recognise the reality of the change led by the Paris Agreement.

India ratified the agreement on 2nd day of October, in memory of the Father of the Nation, Mahatma Gandhi. Though it contributes just around 4.10% of the global emissions, it fully adhered to the treaty to implement it from 4th November 2016. It is hoped that Prime Minister Narendra Modi will strike good rapport with the new US President, as with Obama, and start diplomatic efforts for survival of Paris Agreement so that his ambition of Swachh Bharat will be fulfilled and be a ray of hope to the world.

If the United States withdraws from the agreement, the survival of agreement will be at stake and unrelenting efforts made by United Nations for more than 25 to bring the pact into being would become waste. It is incumbent on the part of major players like European Union, China, Brazil and South Africa to put pressure upon the Trump administration not to go ahead with withdrawal of the US from the Paris Accord. (Writer is Principal, University College of Law, Telangana University, Nizamabad)

By Dr Jetling Yellosa