Casteless UP a far cry

However much one may wish that caste math should be out of our elections, it should not be forgotten that caste is inherent to our DNA and hence it cannot be wished away easily, even though the Supreme Court disagrees with it. Look at all the States that are going to polls now this season. Have you seen the divide go away?

Politicians may not be speaking directly about castes fearing the hand of the law and the subsequent consequences. But, the media does. Look at the analysis of any newspaper or media house. Is it not about the preferences of voters based on caste lines? Are they not telling us to count a particular Dalit in, say in case of Mayawati's BSP, and count a Jat out in case of the BJP because the Jats are feeling let down?

When the entire media declares that Yadav-Muslim combination has gone stronger with the alliance of the SP and the Congress in UP what do they mean? Hence, the focus will never be above these lines. It is a matter of how well one manages these elections vis-a-vis wooing the various castes and sub-castes becomes important to the elections.

While the focus is always on the major caste groupings in UP, please do not forget that in a triangular or multi-cornered contests, the so-called fringe groups always matter. That is why the UP contenders, with no exception, look at the "small is big factor" without fail.

The UP government had already moved to attempt, including 17 OBC sub-castes in the SC category to the dislike of the BSP leadership. Mayawati hit out at Akhilesh Yadav over the same calling him a copy cat as "it is the BSP which proposed the same first to the Centre long ago".

The BJP is keenly studying the “attitudinal changes” of these 17 sub-castes after the ‘gathbandhan’ of the SP and the Congress which is not working well at the grassroot level at all. The alliance between the two seems to be confined to Akhilesh and Rahul Gandhi but the big brother attitude of the main support base of the SP, the Yadavs is leading to all kinds of trouble for the alliance.

In the caste calculus of the populous UP, it is often the smaller castes that hold the key in bringing any party to power, it is known. The key question, hence, is who are the extremely backward castes and non-Jatav Dalits preferring this time around? The extremely backward classes are non-Yadavs, it must be noted.

There are about 44 per cent OBCs in UP electorate with Dalits comprising 21 per cent, Muslims 19 per cent and upper castes, a formidable 16 per cent. Though we tend to look at only the Yadavs' behaviour during elections and consider it a predominant factor, it should not be forgotten that though this segment is numerically the single largest among the OBCs, there are nearly more than 200 non-Yadav OBCs who are double in numbers to the Yadav population in the State.

This includes Kurmis (remember Nitish Kumar?), Koeris, Lodhs, Jats and Sunars. Coming to Dalits, it is well known that Jatavs are at the root of the BSP strength, but the other Dalits do not always vote for the BSP. It depends on various factors. Pasis and Valmikis are the key voters among non-Jatav communities who could swing the result in favour of any candidate at the last moment.

Turning to the 17 sub-castes, we notice that Kahar, Kashyap, Kewat, Nishad, Bind, Bhar, Rajbhar, Batham, Gauriya, Turha, Majhi, Mallah, Kumhar, Dheemar, Dheewar and Machhua are the silent factor that could tilt the game either way for a candidate in constituencies where the margins are low between the win and the defeat. This could be a cashless society, but not certainly a casteless one!

While in the 2007 Assembly elections, the BSP secured 30.4 per cent of votes to form the Government, in 2012, the SP's share was 29.15 per cent when it formed the government. BSP was in the second place with 25.91 per cent and the Congress which fought independently then secured about 11.5 per cent and the BJP got 15 per cent.

If the SP-Congress alliance is trying to replicate the Bihar verdict by coming together much depends on the Mulayam factor too. If Netaji does not campaign wholeheartedly for the alliance, it is bound to affect the chances of the alliance.

A cut-up Shivpal Yadav has leaned towards BJP and is doing his best to damage the combination of the "UP ke Chore" as the alliance projects Akhilesh and Rahul, fielding his own candidates.

In rural UP, among the support of base of Yadavs' Shivpal is all said and done the real 'Dabangg' - the real strong man and not Akhilesh whom the elderly Yadav samaj frowns upon as a thankless son who backstabbed his father and uncles for the sake of power.

Here is where the BJP is playing its cards close to its chest. Amit Shah too is in a mood to replicate Bihar, but this is all about the Bihar Assembly elections of 2005 when the upper castes and non-Yadav OBCs' came together to help JD (U) and the BJP combine to come to power defeating Lalu Prasad's RJD.

The BJP is not uncomfortable with the SP-Congress alliance as it could also swing the Congress upper castes towards the BJP this time around owing to the largely Yadav-Muslim alliance.

Again coming to the OBCs -- Kurmis', Nishads' and weaver community are the most sought after by the BJP in the elections as these three are the biggest among the smaller castes. With Anu Priya Patel of Apna Dal, daughter of Sonelal Patel, who was a BSP general secretary in the past, and Sonelal Patel, founder of Apna Dal, who was inducted into the Cabinet the BJP aims at the OBC-upper caste combination to do the work for it.

The BJP has carefully wooed Swamy Prasad Maurya into its fold and also embraced another strong man of the community Keshav Prasad Maurya as its State chief so that the Mauryas also called Kachhis, Kushwahas, Sainis, Shakyas and Koeries whose number is significant in Eastern UP.

If you thought all these parties had only developmental plank, look again how the ruling SP had wooed prominent Kurmi leader, Beni Prasad Verma and made him a RS MP as he could influence voters in the Barabanki region.

When the Mallah community (4.5 per cent) divided into 27 sub-castes and which could turn the fortunes of the parties either way in more than 120 constituencies along the rivers in UP protested in Delhi, seeking proper representation to themselves in Delhi some time back, the Prime Minister was quick to reach out to them naming a new satellite, NAVIC (navigation with Indian constellation) to please them. He also offered 11 solar powered 'e-boats' to them.

Mayawati has long back deputed its leaders to woo the backward castes and is arriving at pre-poll arrangements. Weavers, known as Momins among Muslims and Taanti and Tantuwe among Hindus are also being wooed aggressively.

This is the Hindu Samaj for us. When the Lalus, Mulayams and even the younger versions like Akhileshs and Rahuls and the senior leaders who want to bring ‘parivartan’ among the people like Amit Shahs do prefer these lines to be intact, the honourable SC's dream of seeking a casteless campaign would never be realised.