China's Taiwan adventure

For the first time in half a century and more, the United States and Japan are occupying themselves with the security of the Taiwan Strait. This followed the meeting of the US President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga recently.

The statement of the two countries in this regard could be symbolic. But the US seems to be really worried about the security of the democratically run island as Beijing is threatening to invade it anytime claiming it as its own.

Top ranking US Navy officials like Admiral John Aquilino recently told a Senate Armed Services committee that taking Taiwan is a "number one" priority for China's Communist Party, while US Asia Pacific commander Philip Davidson has said publicly that China could invade Taiwan in the next six years.

Fears that China will soon launch a military attack against Taiwan have spiked. Three factors are feeding this anxiety. The first is the assessment by many outside experts that the People's Liberation Army (PLA), which includes China's navy, air force, and strategic rocket arsenal, has reached or is very close to reaching such a level of strength that attempting to forcibly compel Taiwan to politically unify with the People's Republic of China (PRC) is a feasible policy option.

The second factor feeding fears of a cross-strait war is the recent intensification of PLA military pressure on Taiwan. Chinese warplanes flew near Taiwan almost daily in 2020. Up to 37 PLA aircraft at a time flew across the midline of the Taiwan Strait, breaking what was previously a taboo that both sides generally respected.

This intimidation has continued into 2021. On one occasion in January, 13 Chinese military aircraft flew through Taiwan's air defence identification zone. Chinese media said a PLA military exercise near the Taiwan Strait in September 2020 was "not a warning, but a rehearsal for a Taiwan takeover."

The third factor contributing to the war anxiety is the perception of a general increase in the aggressiveness of Beijing's foreign policy. Observers point to China's violent border clash with India, stiffening Chinese defence of the "nine-dash line" in the South China Sea as a Chinese territorial boundary, and the rise of "wolf warrior" diplomacy.

Having lived under the threat of Chinese military action for the past 70 years, the island's 23 million people have come to understand what they consider the strange paradox of Taiwan's existence: even as China's military might grows, invasion does not necessarily come any closer.

So, what could be the truth about such speculation? Some experts believe much of the threat assessment by the US military may actually be more of a reflection of a shift in US perceptions about China amid the deteriorating relationship between the world's two economic giants.

This conclusion is arrived at over an assessment of the military balance between China and the US. However, the invasion of Taiwan obviously carries significant risks. The invasion when it happens will inflict a great tragedy on Taiwan. Even China will not escape the collateral damage. If its rulers are wise, they would think twice before venturing into such foolhardiness.