Bihar stares at a fractured, multi-layered contest

As Bihar heads for polls, politics is heating up faster than its winter chill. Nitish Kumar’s alliance with the BJP faces questions of trust and fatigue, while Tejaswi Yadav banks on youth anger and populist promises. Congress has turned into an incidental player. Prashant Kishore’s Jan Suraj adds a disruptive twist to the fractured battlefield.

As a wintery nip sweeps across Bihar, the political temperature is rising fast. Parties are tightening their seat belts for the November 6 and 11 showdown-a battle not just for the gaddi but for relevance in the state’s shifting political landscape. The process of nominations began on Friday. Rallies, seat adjustments are in full swing.

Nitish: Asset or liability for BJP?

The central question this time is not merely who will win, but how. Can Nitish Kumar, once hailed as Sushasan Babu, deliver victory for the BJP? Or has the time come when, like Rahul Gandhi for Congress, Nitish too becomes a liability for his ally?

If the BJP–JDU combine wins, will Nitish once again be the Chief Minister or will the BJP assert dominance and script a new political arithmetic? Many within the BJP quietly admit this could be the last election they contest as allies.

Operation Sindoor and the national undertone:

This election holds national resonance. It’s the first major poll after Operation Sindoor, India’s successful counter-terror operation that left the opposition red-faced. While Prime Minister Narendra Modi turned it into a narrative of national pride, Leader of Opposition Rahul Gandhi and Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge mocked it — a move that alienated many fence-sitters who expected a bipartisan salute to the armed forces. For them even the economy is dead.

There are nearly 30 per cent undecided voters — ‘floaters’ who can tilt the balance. Their choices will depend less on caste and more on credibility, especially with new political entrants adding complexity to the contest.

The ‘vote chori’ cry falls flat:

Rahul Gandhi’s now-famous ‘vote chori’ and ‘SIR’ slogans have failed to ignite public imagination. Congress claims that 65 lakh names were ‘removed’ from Bihar’s voter roll of 7.89 crore, calling it a conspiracy. But on the ground, voters shrug it off as an empty theatre. Most know these were largely bogus or duplicate names, including illegal migrants, cleaned from the rolls.

“Our votes aren’t stolen; fake ones were deleted,” said a young Patna shopkeeper like many others in Hajipur. Even the Supreme Court said there is no substance in the SIR case. It was 100 per cent noise and zero appeals.

Numbers tell a story:

In the 2020 elections, the NDA had a 46 per cent vote share, while the RJD–Congress-led Mahagathbandhan (MGB) managed around 40 per cent. The difference may appear slim-a mere six per cent-but it made all the difference in seat share. BJP won 71 seats, JDU 55, RJD 64, while Congress a meagre 12 out of 240. Now a new wild card is in play: Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraj, which could command up to 10 per cent of the vote — enough to rattle both camps. AAP also jumped into the fray announcing that they would contest all 243 seats. But so far it does not seem to have made any impact.

Caste, gender and the youth factor:

Caste remains central, but no longer singular. The MY (Muslim-Yadav) combination that once powered Lalu Prasad’s RJD has weakened. Muslims, around 17 per cent of Bihar’s population, are disillusioned. AIMIM is unhappy that the MGB didn’t include them in the alliance, calling it “arrogance of the big brothers.” Its decision to go solo may cut into the RJD–Congress vote bank. Critics already deride it as a ‘BJP B-team’, but the damage will be real — and internal.

Meanwhile, women and youth are emerging as decisive factors. In the last assembly election, women’s turnout (60 per cent) surpassed that of men (55 per cent). Nitish’s Mukhyamantri Rozgar Yojana has transferred ₹10,000 each to 75 lakh women — a well-timed direct benefit transfer that could fortify NDA’s base among female voters.

On the other hand, Tejaswi Yadav banks on youth’s anger and unemployment. He promises one government job per family within 20 months— a claim many see as an echo of Telangana’s failed populism and sounds utopian, if not reckless. “Even if he means it, it’s financially impossible,” say economists.

Tejaswi’s ground game vs Rahul’s absence:

If one thing defines this election, it’s the contrast between ground reality and air travel. Tejaswi is visibly active — holding rallies, walking through dusty villages, and connecting with first-time voters. He’s the only opposition leader who is truly sweating it out.

Rahul Gandhi, meanwhile, remains in Columbia, making statements from foreign campuses instead of Indian constituencies. His detachment has become a running joke among Bihar’s electorate. Congress’ presence is purely ornamental.

Chirag Paswan: The heir with local fire:

In Hajipur and surrounding regions, Chirag Paswan is drawing impressive crowds. The legacy of his father, Ram Vilas Paswan, still commands deep emotional appeal. Chirag has positioned himself as the youthful face of the NDA, combining the Paswan legacy with Modi’s developmental narrative.

Locals credit the NDA for improved roads, 24-hour power, clean drinking water, and better schooling. “At least we are free from Jungle Raj,” says a trader in Vaishali.

The so-called “vote chori” issue resonates only in RJD echo chambers; educated youth treat it as a manufactured drama. They know that names struck off voter lists are mostly illegal immigrants — Rohingyas and Bangladeshis.

Prashant Kishore: The silent disruptor:

Amid this charged atmosphere, Prashant Kishore — the strategist-turned-politician — has quietly emerged as the wild card. His Jan Suraj movement is gaining traction, particularly among young, educated voters, who seek a new narrative beyond caste. A Brahmin by birth, Kishore avoids flaunting caste identity and instead invokes Gandhian simplicity.

If current trends hold, his rise could erode MGB votes far more than NDA’s, splitting the anti-incumbency sentiment that Tejaswi hoped to consolidate.

Congress: The incidental partner:

Behind RJD’s forced smiles lies frustration. The party is uneasy with Congress for refusing to endorse Tejaswi as the alliance’s Chief Ministerial face. Congress leaders, on the other hand, grumble that RJD is treating them as junior partners.

But the truth is stark — Congress is now an incidental party in Bihar. A lack of local connect and repeated blunders have reduced it to a sideshow.

A fractured battle ahead:

By all accounts, the Bihar assembly election is shaping into a fractured, multi-layered contest. Nitish Kumar’s credibility is still intact among older voters and women, but fatigue is setting in. Tejaswi Yadav has energy but lacks fiscal realism. Chirag Paswan has local charisma but limited reach. Kishore might decide margins in key constituencies. For now, the NDA holds a slight edge — thanks to its organisational machinery, women-focused schemes, and Modi’s national appeal.

The bottom line:

Rahul Gandhi’s so-called ‘Jan Nayak’ moment has backfired. His choice of issues-‘vote theft’ and imported lectures from Columbia — appear tone-deaf to the State’s ground realities.

(The author is former Chief Editor of The Hans India)