As Congress fumbles, will AAP take off in 2022 elections?

Another year has become history. The big question is did we learn any lesson from the past or not? All that matters to the people mostly as the revelry begins is events and liquor. Wish each one a Happy New Year, announce some resolutions which they would gulp down along with liquor and from January 1 everything would be back to normal life.

Here I am reminded of what the former Governor of undivided Andhra Pradesh ESL Narasimhan had quipped. That was the time when the agitation for separate State was at its peak and when a scribe asked him what would happen on December 31, he said It would lead to January 1.

Not just individuals, even the political parties do not spare any time to look back over the past year and try to assess their performance and evolve new strategies. They are not bothered about the state wise or country wise achievements on various socio-economic parameters.

The Union Government feels that the year has come to an end on a great note by crossing the milestone of 145 crore Covid-19 vaccinations. Some states like Telangana feel that they had achieved a milestone by completing first dose of vaccination for all. No one is willing to think why we could not complete two doses of vaccination for all. There is no shortage of vaccine now. What we lacked in 2021 was determination to take up the drive-in mission mode. The steam was lost midway.

Let me make one thing clear. This analysis may sound as if I am being pessimistic. No, this is simple Bold Talk and effort to call a 'spade a spade.'

It would be a real New Year if the political parties go in for a big-ticket change and fight the ensuing Assembly elections on issues like development rather than caste-based polarisation, money, muscle and liquor power. But no such visible anywhere in the political horizon. The Andhra Pradesh Government ushered in New Year by permitting premium brands of liquor in the state on the eve of New Year.

Telangana Government had also shown liberal attitude towards flow of liquor and holding of events saying that it is the responsibility of the people to protect themselves from Omicron. It has issued guidelines like mask is must for every person who participates in the New Year events. There cannot be a better joke of the year than this.

There is no way the government could enforce people wearing a mask even in cinema theatres once the audience cross the entrance gate. This being the situation how did it think that people in pubs who would be under the influence of alcohol will wear masks? The guidelines, the deployment of police from midnight to 6 am was more aimed towards drunk and drive fine amount they would be collecting.

The focus of the government was in mopping up Rs 104 crore on a single day that is December 31. The total revenue on account of liquor as the sun had set on 2021 was Rs 3350 crore during December as against Rs 2767 crore in 2020 December. It did not end there. It has ushered in a costly New Year for the common man.

The price of milk produced by Vijaya Dairy, owned by the government has gone up by Rs two a litre. The power tariff is in for steep hike from April. The government perhaps wants to balance the amount it would be spending on the free water promise by collecting high charges from power. "Ek haath se do, doosre haath se lo." Irony is this, the leaders of ruling party will not tell the people.

Well if we move northwards, the BJP, the AAP, the Congress party and other parties are busy mobilising manpower and money power to fight the assembly elections in five states. The focus is now on Uttarakhand, UP, and Punjab elections. The question is can Yogi and Channi make it again? Will Congress be able to bag Uttarakhand?

The party unit in Uttarakhand is in a bad shape as the faction fighting does not seem to have come to an end. Though the Chief Minister candidate Harish Rawat claimed that he would lead the campaign during polls, the internal party rumblings have not been resolved. In fact, recently, Rawat even tweeted saying that perhaps it was time for him to retire from active politics.

Punjab is the only state where Congress is ruling and if it loses, it could prove to be a bad beginning for the grand old party. It is no where in the race in states like Goa, Manipur, Himachal and Gujarat which would go to polls later. This may help BJP in claiming that they had achieved Congress-mukt Bharat.

The expectation is that this time the campaign in UP may lay greater focus on development. But then caste would of course be the only factor while finalising the candidates. A quick analysis as on date indicates that BJP continues to be comfortable in Western UP.

There is a possibility of division of votes among Brahmins who had gone with Yogi last time. The Kshatriya community would rally behind Yogi but there would be a division in the votes of Jats and Yadavs. Even the Dalits would not go en masse with Behenji Mayawati. The Congress boat which is rudderless continues to be in a pathetic situation. The pollsters feel that this may help Yogi to come back to power, may be with a lesser majority.

As far as Punjab is concerned, the Congress went in for big gamble. They had replaced Captain Amarinder Singh and had opted for a Dalit Sikh leader Charanjit Singh Channi. Interestingly, Channi has chosen a study of the electoral strategies of Congress party since 2004 including its failures as his subject for PhD. It is said he had interviewed many Congress leaders, gathered many suggestions for leaders for his thesis.

This, if given a free hand, may help Channi in working out his own strategies to counter the Aam Aadmi Party which seems to be in to cause a dent in the vote banks of Congress and BJP. The Kejriwal led AAP is making all out efforts to make a breakthrough and get out of the image of being a Delhi-centric party. It wants to emerge as a national party and spread its wings to Punjab, Goa, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat as well.

If it succeeds to win at least few seats in some of these states, AAP would be achieving something which no other regional party could do so far. The advantage of AAP is the name. It can be used in any state like BJP, Congress etc. In case of other regional parties like TRS, YSRCP, TDP, TMC etc, they are identified with one state or region.

They can play the role of king makers but cannot become kings. Moreover, AAP is from the Hindi belt and that makes lot of difference. None of the leaders of other regional parties can gain the kind of acceptance among people as AAP.

AAP can showcase Delhi model of development and welfare schemes while other regional parties do not have that kind of advantage.