Signs of thaw in Indo-Pak ties

Signs of a thaw in the India-Pakistan relations have emerged as a prelude to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s participation in the first SAARC Summit in three years at Kathmandu.

After much backroom diplomatic effort, a meeting on the summit’s sidelines has been scheduled between him and his Pakistan counterpart Nawaz Sharif.

After the then Defence Minister Arun Jaitley flatly rejected prospects of such a meeting a fortnight back, India has shown a lukewarm readiness to talk. This has been facilitated by a relative calm on the Line of Control and the international border. India’s response to provocations from the other side had sent out a tough message. Islamabad, of course, blames India for the firing, attributing it to the presence of a “Hindu nationalist” dispensation in New Delhi.

The unstated part of the latest development that neither side is talking is the United States’ role. Soon after the announcement that President Barack Obama would be the Chief Guest at India’s Republic Day next January, he telephoned Sharif. The latter complained of India’s tough stance on the border and refusal to hold bilateral talks.
Pakistan’s Foreign Office announced, for domestic public’s consumption, that Sharif had urged Obama to talk to Modi on the Kashmir issue.

Everyone is aware that the US would not broach Kashmir, since it considers it a bilateral issue for India and Pakistan to resolve. Obama appears to have accepted Sharif’s second plea to persuade Delhi to hold bilateral talks. It would make perfect sense for Washington to get the bilateral dialogue going before Obama arrives in India.

Having secured the prized Obama visit, India seems to have relented. Delhi has also taken cue from Washington’s announcement that it will not abruptly end its military presence in Afghanistan, the other festering issue between India and Pakistan. This has been welcomed by Islamabad and Kabul. But the Indian approach remains cautious.

Modi is to have “meaningful dialogue with as many South Asian colleagues as possible,” as official spokesman Syed Akbaruddin broadly put it. By contrast, Islamabad was quick to confirm a Modi-Sharif meeting. Both sides would now approach the talks in a gingerly manner.

A likely outcome at Kathmandu may be fixing a meeting of the two Foreign Secretaries, probably in February or March. By that time, India will have completed the state assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir, a major reason. Obama will also have come and gone. The intervening period between now and the talks early next year may, hopefully, not see much border violence. This would provide much-needed relief to the civilian populace on both sides.

Not talking cannot be a permanent option. Whatever may happen at the one-to-one talk, one thing is clear: both the big neighbours would not like to be seen as holding the SAARC region to ransom because of their bilateral problems. That, by itself, is a good augury.