Akhilesh now holds all the aces

Fog is slowly lifting from the political skies of Uttar Pradesh and the contours of the strengths of opponents are getting more visible with each passing day. There is none more wary than those sitting in the BJP headquarters in New Delhi. They are more worried over the outcome of the 'battle of perceptions' in the key State.

Given that it is perception that matters in politics, the yet-to-be-born born 'Mahagathbandhan' of SP-Cong-RLD seems to have already made a strong impression on the psyche of the voters. This should upset the applecart of the BSP too as it perceived that it was inching closer to power till about a few weeks back.

The perception now prevailing in UP is that Akhilesh is starting afresh on a clean note having gotten rid of the dead wood. This approach is bound to unnerve the opponents considering that the generally fangled anti-incumbency factor not only gets blown away in the wake of this, but also helps people see only the positives - youthful dynamism and developmental projects - in him.

Talking right and making sense also appeals to the urban and upwardly mobile youth of the State. This segment strongly stood by the BJP in the last Lok Sabha elections that won 71 seats. Riding on the Modi wave and Amit Shah’s clear strategy, the BJP made a stunning comeback in Uttar Pradesh in 2014 and effectively decimated the likes of Mulayam and Mayawati.

From the mountains to the plains, there was no exception. Tehri Garhwal, Almora to Haridwar to Unnao to Rampur and from Mathura to Meerut, the story was the same. Modi's appeal came as a fresh whiff of developmental air and the crowds that turned out at his meeting venues went back to the polling booths to vote for him. That freshness and that 'something' is missing now in the BJP appeal.

The hardship of people after demonetisation has been felt more in UP where 40 percent population is below poverty line. A large number of people, dependent on the handloom, handicrafts, leather and leather products, brass work, sheet metal wares, aluminum art works, wood work and glassware, sports related industry and music instruments segment, pottery etc have been pushed back by at least two decades and lakh have lost livelihoods. Count in the fact that majority dependent on this are Muslim artisans and you have a strong anti-BJP segment.

Moradabad alone exports brassware and other metal ware worth rupees 40 billion a year and this industry is completely rounded now. Would this 30 percent of the country's total workforce vote for BJP? Developmental issues apart, the real perception among voters is that 'social engineering' is the only option for winning the elections and this would be difficult to overcome. This is UP and caste and clan matter here.

Religion is a unifying force among the Minorities, but among the Hindus, it is a divisive factor. The coming together of Muslims, Yadavs and Jats is a pointer to the strong social calculus and the arithmetic jugglery that works here. It is also said that Akhilesh has deliberately kept out several urban constituencies from his list of 235 candidates announced in the last week of December that fueled the family drama in the SP.

He has done so keeping in mind the voting pattern in the Lok Sabha elections in which the Congress came second to the BJP in several segments, particularly those in the Urban centres. In seven of the Urban clusters, the Congress stood next to the BJP. Lucknow, Kanpur, Ghaziabad, Saharanpur and Barabanki all saw Congress candidates giving the BJP candidates a tough fight. This is because these urban Constituencies consist of a good chunk of minority votes.

Even in the Assembly elections, the Congress bagged 13 urban seats in the 2012 Assembly elections. The minorities were worried over the SP troubles and heaved a sigh of relief when Akhilesh was awarded the cycle symbol by the Election Commission. Because, the minorities perceive that the social engineering of the 'Mahagathbandhan' would offer them a better choice over Mayawati's who has already picked up nearly 100 Muslim candidates to outsmart the SP.

If the BJP sees a ray of hope. it is in this clash of social engineering of these two groups. Weakened purse-strings of the opponents in the wake of demonetisation is also another issue it expects to go in its favour.

By W Chandrakanth