Kerala Assembly polls: The shifting dynamics of SC votes will determine the outcome
Kerala’s Scheduled Caste (SC) vote, once considered a singular bloc, is rapidly fragmenting ahead of the 2026 Assembly elections. The “Dalit vote,” historically influenced by powerful community organisations, is now splitting into three prominent streams: urban aspirants moving towards the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), a rural group returning to the United Democratic Front (UDF) following several state welfare disappointments, and a shrinking, but loyal, core continues to support the Left Democratic Front (LDF).
This division emerges from complex caste sub-divisions, ideological realignments, and targeted political outreach, signalling a decisive shift in subaltern politics that could redefine electoral outcomes.
At the center of this transformation are the leading community organizations. The Kerala Pulayar Maha Sabha (KPMS), under Punnala Sreekumar, stands for the Pulaya community, the State’s largest SC group. Traditionally aligned with the Left and instrumental in the 2018 “Women’s Wall,” KPMS distanced itself from the LDF in 2021, while terming the 10 per cent reservation for Economically Weaker Sections (EWS) among forward castes as unconstitutional. If KPMS continues to keep its distance or aligns with the UDF or NDA, the LDF could lose its grip in key constituencies like Kunnathur and Mavelikkara.
The Prathyaksha Raksha Daiva Sabha (PRDS), founded by Poykayil Appachan and rooted among Kurava and other sub-castes in Pathanamthitta and Kottayam, is also divided. While its main faction supports the LDF, a significant splinter has joined the NDA, drawn by the BJP’s depiction of Appachan as a Hindu reformer. This split, influenced by concerns over secular erasure and religious conversions, has made constituencies like Adoor and Mavelikkara battlegrounds, with the NDA making inroads, as seen in the 2025 local polls.
The Cherama Sambava Development Society (CSDS), representing Paraya and Sambava communities, accuses the LDF of favouring the Pulayas and monopolising reservations. Energised by a 2025 Supreme Court judgment supporting sub-categorisation and “creamy layer” exclusions, the CSDS now backs the UDF and NDA, both of which are promising reforms. Their support could prove decisive in close contests such as Tarur and Chelakkara. Thiruvananthapuram’s recent political shift highlights these changes.
NDA’s unprecedented victory in the city corporation—winning 50 of 101 wards and ending the 45-year LDF reign—was achieved by targeting SC-dominated areas through central welfare schemes, bypassing local CPI (M) networks. Successes of NDA candidates like V V Rajesh and R Sreelekha, with support from marginalised sub-castes like Vettuvans, show the impact of a strategic, focused outreach. Though the NDA’s overall vote share was just below that of LDF, its effective concentration in key wards set a model for future urban campaigns. This fragmentation has created a credibility crisis for the LDF. Losses in strongholds like Kollam Corporation suggest disconnect from its core working-class base.
Critics like KPMS leader Sreekumar argue that the LDF is now “a government of upper castes,” while withholding caste census data has fuelled suspicion that the Left prioritises forward communities over Dalit representation.
Internal dynamics within the LDF also complicate matters. O R Kelu, the new Minister for Welfare of Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes, and Backward Classes, is expected to strengthen tribal support in Wayanad but faces cultural gaps with SC groups in southern Travancore.
The Pulaya-dominated Pattikajathi Kshema Samithi (PKS) feels that tribal leaders are out of touch with the specific concerns of SC communities, particularly regarding reservations and land rights. Meanwhile, K Radhakrishnan, a senior LDF leader and advocate for Dalit temple priests, remains the coalition’s ideological anchor. He frames BJP’s advances among Dalits as an attempt to restore Manuvadi (upper-caste) dominance and plans “secular protection rallies” to counter NDA’s influence among SC communities.
Meanwhile, PKS itself faces an existential challenge. Its focus on agricultural unions and class struggle is less relevant to younger, educated SC voters seeking opportunities in the white-collar sector and entrepreneurship. The Supreme Court’s support for sub-categorization has left the PKS—dominated by Pulayas—opposing “creamy layer” exclusions while needing to appease Paraya and Vettuvan members who support them, creating internal tensions that the BJP is eager to exploit. Within the UDF, Sunny Joseph’s appointment as Kerala Pradesh Congress Committee (KPCC) President in 2025 reflects an effort to build a “Rainbow Coalition.” By elevating Dalit leaders and addressing agrarian and wildlife issues that affect SC laborers, Joseph aims to unite Christian, Nair, and Dalit interests without alienating any group.
Kodikunnil Suresh, KPCC Working President and a veteran MP, leverages his influence among Paraya and Cheramar communities to portray the CPI(M) as being dominated by Pulaya interests, positioning Congress as the champion of minority SC groups. He has led targeted campaigns criticising LDF’s housing project failures in SC neighbourhoods.
Other UDF leaders like A P Anil Kumar and V D Satheesan have revived initiatives like the “Gandhi Gramam” for holistic Dalit development and have bypassed state bureaucracy to deliver direct benefits, strengthening UDF’s position in recent local polls. High-profile events like the “Dalit Progress Conclave 2025” have helped forge alliances with national Dalit leaders.
A reenergized Dalit Congress has also taken on LDF over corruption scandals like the Sabarimala gold theft, touching the religious sentiments of SC voters. The NDA, meanwhile, is expanding its reach beyond traditional Ezhava support by courting the Vettuvan community, which has shifted away from the Left due to promises of sub-categorisation and cultural recognition.
On the fringes is the Dalit Human Rights Movement (DHRM), led by Seleena Prakkanam, which rejects mainstream political frameworks and advocates a distinct Dalit identity rooted in Ambedkarism and Buddhism. Their presence, though small, can play spoilsport, by calling for protest votes or NOTA in constituencies where Dalit issues are neglected.
As Kerala moves towards the Assembly elections, these trends point to a turbulent political landscape. The LDF’s once-solid SC base faces erosion due to ideological drift and caste splits. For both the UDF and NDA, building effective, inclusive coalitions is crucial, but victory will require more than promises. In this fractured setting, the SC vote could determine Kerala’s future, with demands for genuine equity taking precedence over token gestures.
(The writer is a researcher with People’s Pulse research organisation)
