NASA Estimates 3.1% Chance of Asteroid Impact in 2032, Simulation Shows Devastating Effect

NASA has increased the probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting Earth in 2032 to 3.1%, up from 2.6% last week, sparking widespread concern and speculation. First detected on December 27, 2024, by the El Sauce Observatory in Chile, the asteroid, with a size of about 177 feet (54 meters), is large enough to destroy a major city but too small to endanger global civilization.

While a simulation of the potential impact has gone viral, showing the asteroid decimating a metropolis, experts urge caution. Bruce Betts, chief scientist at the Planetary Society, reassured the public, stating that the increase in probability is expected to fluctuate, with the likelihood of a strike decreasing as more data is collected.

The animation, created by 3D artist Alvaro Gracia Montoya, portrays the catastrophic consequences of the asteroid’s collision with Earth. Shared widely on social media, it has amplified concerns but is not a cause for panic.

The International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) had issued an initial alert in January after the impact probability rose above 1%, and since then, the figure has continued to climb. NASA's updated calculations place the probability of impact at 3.1%, with a possible collision date of December 22, 2032. This gives a 1 in 32 chance of a strike, but experts maintain that the odds remain low.

Despite the increased risk, there is still a 96.9% chance that the asteroid will miss Earth entirely. As astronomers refine the asteroid's trajectory, the probability of an impact is expected to drop back to zero. There's also a slight 0.3% chance that the asteroid could collide with the moon instead.

In summary, while the updated calculations may raise concerns, experts reassure that the situation remains under control and the risk of a significant asteroid strike is still minimal.