New Delhi: As Bihar awaits the outcome of its Assembly elections 2025 on Friday, exit polls have begun painting a picture of how different voter groups cast their ballots.

Findings from the Axis My India survey indicate that employment opportunities and migration remain central issues influencing voter sentiment, while leadership image and credibility also weighed heavily on voters’ minds.

As per the Axis My India Exit Poll, released on Wednesday, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is projected to secure 43% of the total vote share, while the Mahagathbandhan (MGB), representing the INDIA bloc (Mahagathbandhan), is close behind with 41%. Axis My India predicted that the NDA would win between 121-141 seats, and the Mahagathbandhan 98-118 seats.

The extensive Axis My India survey, which covered voters across age brackets, income categories, and districts, suggests that both government initiatives and caste dynamics played crucial roles in shaping choices at the polling booth. In its party-wise break-up, Axis My India predicted that the RJD would be the single-largest party getting between 67-76 seats, followed by the JD(U) at 56-62 seats, BJP 50-56 seats, Congress 17-21 seats, Vikassheel Insaan Party 3-5 seats, and Left parties 10-14 seats.

The data further reveals a gender divide in preferences. Among women voters, 45% supported the NDA, 40% chose the MGB, 3% sided with the Prashant Kishor-led Jan Suraaj Party (JSP), and the remaining 12% voted for other candidates or smaller parties. Among male voters, 41% favoured the NDA, 42% the MGB, 5% JSP, and 12% opted for other groups.

Educational background also appeared to influence choices. The MGB led among postgraduates with 41%, followed by 38% for the NDA, while 10% preferred Jan Suraaj. It also claimed that while 34 per cent people want to see RJD's Tejashwi Yadav as the chief minister, 22 per cent want incumbent Nitish Kumar (JD-U) to remain at the helm.

Age-based analysis highlighted contrasting trends. The NDA drew strong support from older voters, securing 51% of ballots from those aged 70 and above. Conversely, 46% of first-time voters (aged 18-19) aligned with the MGB, while the JSP found its strongest base — 6% — among both new voters and those aged 20 to 29.

Caste dynamics continued to shape Bihar’s political landscape. The survey indicated that only 6% of Yadavs voted for the NDA, while the MGB captured an overwhelming 90% of Yadav votes and 79% of Muslim votes.

Meanwhile, 56% of Dalit and tribal voters were estimated to have backed the NDA. The NDA, however, drew strong backing from Brahmins, capturing 64% of their votes compared to 14% for the MGB and 9% for the Jan Suraj Party (JSP). Among Dalit and tribal voters, 56% were estimated to have supported the NDA.

While the NDA, comprising the BJP, JD(U) and LJP (Ram Vilas) as the major alliance partners, is looking to return to power in Bihar, the Opposition INDIA bloc, which has the RJD, the Congress and the Left parties as the main constituents, is looking to form the government with RJD's Tejashwi Yadav its chief ministerial face.