Ugadi Special: Prophecies keep the magic going

The Telugu New Year, Ugadi, is just around the corner and with it; the festival brings in hope for a better tomorrow. Reading almanac (Panchanga Sravanam) is a ritual that is looked forward to for the glad tidings it brings. It is awaited eagerly both by the rulers and the ruled each with their own set of expectations

The “present moment is everything”, state all the great philosophies of the world that wax eloquent on ways to get rid of stress and focus on “What is”. We are forced to admit however reluctantly that the anxiety about outcomes in a deadline driven world is more exhausting than the outcome itself. Neither the languid images of a pleasure-loving Omar Khayyam talking about “today being sweet” nor the peacefully meditating picture of the desire renouncing Buddha talking about being in the “now” can, however, quell thoughts about the future.

The mystery and magic of tomorrow persists and casts it charm on all. The high and mighty, the low and humble, the average and ordinary are all susceptible to the ‘desire to know’, which is always fuelled by thoughts of better times. Why do I remember this generalisation, now more than ever?

Quite simple, really! If New Year resolutions (never followed) become the most spoken of the subject as the dates change in our calendar on December 31, the “Ugadi” festival ushering in the Telugu and Kannada New Year comes with its own brand of uniqueness. The reading of the almanac (Panchanga Sravanam) with predictions for the country and the State, in particular, is a ritual that is looked forward to for the glad tidings it brings. It is awaited eagerly both by the rulers and the ruled each with their own set of expectations.

Experts who study planetary movements and interpret their effect with predictions peppered with humour and anecdotes (depending on the literary prowess of the scholar) underplay evil and focus on painting rosy pictures year after year with unfiltered enthusiasm. This could be one of the reasons why the ritual for many years confined to being a government function has gradually spread to different political parties with each holding its own rendering.

Those in power and away from it are all ears when it comes to grandiose statements about a “bright future”. This is where the predictions become a source of entertainment. Political bosses preside over these gatherings much like the kings of yore, nodding approvingly after one good word after another satisfies their “King size” egos.

Predictions of all kinds, particularly daily, weekly and monthly forecasts are an addiction for the ‘General Janatha’ too and not just the political class, who need a high dose of optimism to brave the system. I know of people who follow not only what’s written in their zodiac sign but predictions of enemies and friends.

This, knowing full well that most of the things written follow a regular pattern and are too general to be taken seriously. Predictions with pictures of celebrities born under the zodiac sign, ones with Tarot cards and those claiming to be spoken by the Gods are a great hit with readers who swear by the lucky colours, numbers and gods who answer their prayers. While television journalists and anchors sweat it out in the studios, our astrologer friends have sponsored programmes and dedicated clients, making them celebrities overnight.

Predictions for the economy, sport, poll results and every aspect of life are the order of the day. We are bombarded with different sorts of predictions but have no idea how reliable they are. Research done by a person called Philip Tetlock on over 28,361 predictions from 264 self-proclaimed professionals showed that they fared only marginally better than a random forecast generator.

Talking about this in his book “The Art of Thinking Clearly’, Rolf Dobelli, best-selling Swiss writer, novelist and entrepreneur says the more forecasts these experts generate, the greater the number of those that are coincidentally correct. The experts say the author enjoys a free reign with a few negative consequences.

If they strike it lucky, they enjoy publicity, consultancy and publication deals. If they are completely off the mark, they face no penalties either in terms of financial compensation or loss of reputation. This win –win situation is an incentive for them to churn out as many prophecies as they can muster.

The presence of so many experts who can look into the future has not prevented the occurrence of most earth-shaking events that have remained largely unpredictable. Human behaviour and weather conditions too often defy predictions. Despite all this, the desire to know is beyond logic.

That is why the rendering of the almanac still arouses our interest year after. You may not believe it but you want to hear it. Feel good and dream on, to wake up to reality by the end of the year. Tomorrow is another day with fresher dreams.