MIM entry charges up Bihar polls

Queering the pitch for the Lalu-Nitish-Mulayam combine, Asaduddin Owaisi is appealing to the minorities in Bihar to cut out the crap and elect true pro-Muslim candidates who work for their welfare, instead of trying to prop up someone blindly, falling for their “secular” claims. The Modi-Amit Shah strategy has already made the grand alliance a bit uncomfortable. It is not only planning to exploit the potentially damaging situations that parties like AIMIM or NCP could create but is also planning to field independent Yadavs against official (read grand alliance) Yadavs, disgruntled Mahadalits against alliance Mahadalit candidates of the alliance. Add to this is dissent in grand alliance over seat distribution

New Delhi: The entry of the president of All India Majlis Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), Asaduddin Owaisi, into the Bihar election arena has rattled the Nitish-Lalu-Mulayam combine which is already bogged down by its own "teething problems". What has become more worrisome for the trio is the acerbic attack of Asaduddin and his probing questions on the commitment of the 'secular parties' to the welfare of the Muslim minorities in the country.

Asaduddin is generating a good response in Bihar, especially in the Seemanchal region of the State, where a vast swath of the minorities are haunted by illiteracy and poverty. His appeal to them to cut out the crap and elect true pro-Muslim candidates who work for their welfare instead of trying to prop up someone blindly, falling for their “Secular” claims, to power at the State or national level, has a certain appeal-potential for the minorities who feel cheated by every ruling combination that did not do enough for improving their lives.

The new political experiment headed by Nitish-Lalu combine is emerging as a troubled equation with dissent in both the groups already out in the fore. Senior RJD leader and former Union Minister, Raghuvansh Prasad Singh has already accused Nitish Kumar of ignoring the alliance rules and playing a game of his own. It is supposed to be a combined fight. But, Nitish going ahead with hoardings that do not show the alliance partners despite having reached an understanding is worrying the RJD leadership.

Though, Lalu does not say so openly, it is believed that Raghuvansh Prasad is simply playing His Master's Voice in claiming that the RJD was being backstabbed. He has bemoaned the seat-sharing arrangement and is not happy with the 100-100 seat sharing agreement with the ruling JD (U). As an agreement has already been reached to make Nitish the Chief Minister - if it wins elections - the RJD should have got more seats, is his argument.

The grand alliance is presenting its solidarity show on August 30 at Patna, still it is not decided whether all posters and hoardings will be a combined one or not. Again, the well-entrenched RJD or JD (U) leaders who suspect of being deprived of seats due to the new alliance are already turning to other parties like the AIMIM and the BJP. Former RJD MLA, Akhtarul Imam, a heavy weight, is all set to contest from Kishanganj of the Seemanchal region on the AIMIM ticket.

While, Lalu and Nitish are so far playing up tangentially opposite campaigns - the first one based on social justice and the second that of good governance - it is not yet clear whether these two would find a merger point sooner. The brittle caste equations that sewed Nitish plans properly and brought him to power in the last elections seem to be taking some beating now. The extremely backward and Mahadalit community that supported Nitish then is yet to decide on the same now.

Two of its effective leaders, Upendra Khushwaha and Jitan Ram Manjhi, have already jumped into the BJP bandwagon. The grand alliance experiment JD(U), Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Congress, NCP and Samajwadi Party (SP). The NCP leadership too has questioned the seat-sharing arrangement wherein only three seats are left it while the Congress has been earmarked 40 seats in the 243 seat Bihar Assembly. The NCP's Tariq Anwar has questioned Nitish if he wished away the Muslim face and planned to win the elections against the BJP.

This has come in handy for Asaduddin Owaise to further needle the grand alliance intentions to his own benefit as he is eyeing the 2017 UP Assembly elections, too. The Modi-Amit Shah strategy has already made the grand alliance a bit uncomfortable with the ground realities. The BJP is not only planning to exploit the potentially damaging situations that parties like the AIMIM or NCP could create but also is planning to play up caste against caste by fielding independent Yadavs' against official (read grand alliance candidates) Yadavs, disgruntled Mahadalits against alliance mahadalit candidates.

Lalu Prasad is already wary of this and is crying hoarse that the BJP was playing dirty caste politics. Nitish Kumar too threw a sumptuous breakfast to select journalists at the State Guest House on Monday to convince them that the BJP was the bad guy because it was accusing the alliance of playing caste politics. Forgetting the very basis of his ideology and social engineering in coming to power and in defeating Lalu Yadav during the last elections, he went on to ask whether such caste-oriented accusations were valid in a country of castes.

But, here is where he should be worried. The chinks in the armour have already been exposed. Narendra Modi will certainly try to attack from the flanks. The entry of the likes of Asaduddin who would exploit the dissatisfaction in a segment of voters with his fiery speeches or the resentment among the likes of the NCP and those who are deprived of seats due to the seat-sharing arrangement could prove costly for the grand alliance.

Yet another clever ploy of the BJP is not to project its CM candidate for turning the election into a fight between Narendra Modi and the grand alliance. Modi has already successfully deployed his "DNA" barb against the Bihar leadership of the ruling coalition very innocuously and the Nitish-Lalu combine has taken the bait forgetting that the former was aiming at the OBC votes too. There is little chance of the elections turning into Bihar vs Gujarat as is being planned by Nitish Kumar. If any, it could turn out into Nitish-Lalu vs Narendra Modi. That is the catch to it!

By W Chandrakanth