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Madden-Julian Oscillation
The prevailing weak monsoon pattern is likely to persist for five or six days, weather scientists said on Monday. The advance of the monsoon has been quite slow this year due to a global atmospheric disturbance called the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Scientists say storms from the Mediterranean region called \"western disturbances\" have also likely contributed to the stall in the monsoon\'s adva
The prevailing weak monsoon pattern is likely to persist for five or six days, weather scientists said on Monday. The advance of the monsoon has been quite slow this year due to a global atmospheric disturbance called the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Scientists say storms from the Mediterranean region called "western disturbances" have also likely contributed to the stall in the monsoon's advance across the subcontinent.
The MJO is a large-scale eastward-moving atmospheric disturbance - marked by specific wind patterns - over the tropical region with a 30 to 60-day periodicity that strongly influences rainfall patterns over the regions of its influence as it circles the globe, moving at about 14kmph to 28kmph.
The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the major fluctuation in tropical weather on weekly to monthly timescales. The MJO can be characterised as an eastward moving 'pulse' of cloud and rainfall near the equator that typically recurs every 30 to 60 days. While the MJO is a lesser-known phenomenon, it can have dramatic impacts in the mid-latitudes. Several times a year the MJO is a strong contributor to various extreme events in the United States, including Arctic air outbreaks during the winter months across the central and eastern portions of the United States, writes www.climate.gov.
Two American meteorologists - Roland Madden and Paul Julian - discovered the MJO in the early 1970s while they were studying wind and pressure patterns in the tropics. They noticed regular oscillations in wind patterns between Singapore and Canton island in the west central equatorial Pacific, according to a paper on the MJO from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. #Weather scientists have observed that the MJO's position influences the pace at which the monsoon advances across the subcontinent.
Under the normal pace, the monsoon should cover the entire country in about 45 days - by July 15 - from the normal onset date of June 1, according to The Telegraph. Weather simulations suggest that the MJO will re-emerge over the equatorial Indian ocean in about five or six days, activating the monsoon's further advance, scientists said. Documented weather records suggest that the monsoon can cover the entire country up to about two weeks ahead or after the normal date of July 15.
