UP bypoll takes away sheen off BJP’s Tripura victory

In the general elections of 2009, Phulpur Lok Sabha segment was bagged by Kapil Muni Karwariya of the BSP and the SP candidate, Shyama Charan Gupta, came second with 1,52,964 votes. The Congress had bagged 67,623 votes in this election apart from an independent candidate Dr Sone Lal Patel who bagged 76,699 votes. The BJP candidate, Karan Singh Patel, bagged only 44, 828 votes.

During the 2014 general elections, when Modi wave swept the country, BJP’s Keshav Prasad Maurya wrested the seat with 5,03,564 votes. This meant that the party bagged 52.43 per cent of the votes polled. The rest could get only 32.10 per cent of votes.

Now, let us look at the present scenario of by-elections. That the BJP has lost Phulpur along with Gorakhpur - margins are immaterial here - should not surprise anyone. Gorakhpur takes away the sheen off the BJP's recent victory in Tripura like none else. The fact that it took more than two decades for people of Tripura to turn against the Government should be kept in mind while discussing Gorakhpur.

Both Phulpur and Gorakhpur were held by the Deputy Chief Minister Maurya and Yogi Adityanath before they moved over to the present offices. It is significant to note that voters spurned the BJP in these two segments alongside Araria Lok Sabha and Jehanabad Assembly segment by electing the RJD candidates in Bihar. The BJP could secure Bhabua Assembly segment here.

Araria's was largely a sympathy vote as the sitting MP, Taslimuddin passed away and his son, Sarfraz Alam contested the elections. Bhabua Assembly segment also elected on sympathy vote as the sitting BJP MLA's wife, Rinky Pandey was filed here after her husband's death.

The bypoll in Araria was being viewed as a test for the ruling JD(U)-BJP combine as well as the opposition RJD-Congress alliance, ahead of the big battle in the general elections due next year. It was the first major test for Chief Minister Nitish Kumar since he walked out of the Grand Alliance last year, but sympathy factor made the RJD overcome his challenge.

Coupled with the defeats in the recent byelections in Rajasthan and its panchayat elections, the present results in UP become pointers to the fact that the BJP's 2014 win was largely attributable to Narendra Modi and it was a vote for Modi who promised the much-needed change in every segment of life. It was the dream of 'Achhe Din' that made people vote for the BJP.

What happened to the dream now? Or is it that voters are in mood to bear with all and sundry for the sake of Modi any longer? This, of course, was not Modi's election per se. The result in 2019 could be different as it is dependent on several factors again, yet, Modi's will be weighed once again against the then other groupings for delivering judgment.

It is UP elections results that will be discussed more than any for some time now. After all, Yogi was the BJP's face throughout who sought to fight the 2019 elections similarly. His prediction before the elections was that he would secure huge wins once again in Gorakhpur, which he is holding for the last five terms.

Yogi is no ordinary CM. He is the Mahant of the Gorakhpur temple. The election was considered as a judgment on the 'aan' (honour) of Gorakhpur temple's chief priest. Now apart from the 'aan' even the 'shaan' of BJP had been taken away. Why?

It is time the BJP leadership take stock of the situation without its ego playing any role. It is not just the omissions and commissions of the BJP-led Centre but also that of the Yogi Government. The election results to Parliament in Uttar Pradesh is indicative of the fact that the Narendra Modi’s promises, on several fronts, were not kept and hence the party's fall from grace.

This is where the 'Bua-Bhatija' combo worked wonders for the BSP-SP combine as it was on a life-support system all along since 2014. This could be the right tango to take on the BJP in the next general elections. The BJP has 73 of the 80 LS seats here. The bigger trouble could be for the Congress which is making efforts to lead the anti-BJP plank in the country as never before. On Tuesday, Sonia Gandhi hosted a dinner to about 19 Opposition parties in a bid to consolidate her son's positions.

But, it should keep in mind that its ego too is not going to help it. Even in these byelections in UP, the Congress sought to contest one of the LS seats. Wisely, the SP denied it the space and played its gambit only to win. If the Congress has to be counted in 2019, it has to bury its ego and stature fathoms deep and join hands with all the others humbly.

After, the Gujarat 'jhatka', the Rajasthan shocker and the Maharashtra farmers' success, the BJP must be wary of voters. It should also realise the damage its fringe is imposing on it. It should also realise that its love for cow does not fetch it votes even in the cow belt.

The BJP came to power with Modi promising a change in the politics in tune with the new-age aspirations. The new-age aspirations are all about freedom, liberty, equality and justice. It is more about our Preamble to the Constitution. Attacks on Dalits and minorities not just anger those segments but also affect all the other right-thinking minds. There is no dearth of such minds in the country.

This society is also about Dhabolkars, Pansares and Gauri Lankeshs. The diversity matters for this unity and the BJP, if it continues to attack the same, keeping aside its good governance and developmental planks, will pay a dear price anyway.

The insecurity feeling that some fringe elements are creating is only getting stoked by the stoic silence of the top leadership of the BJP. Nationally and internationally, these are complex times and only balanced minds with a long-term view can augur well for the country. This is what voters are seeking. Any party that ignores this deep yearning and craving for the larger good of society, loses the game.

The BJP must also now has to contend with the rural distress in the form of the agrarian crisis too. The urban voters are rejecting it and so is the semi-urban voter and also the rural voters. The youth are deserting it and so is the trader. Its Hindutva vote alone will not be sufficient for it to win the elections the next time.

It's not just the farmer, but the common man too is feeling cheating and betrayed now. Every big name which loots the nation and merrily scoots, adds to the discomfiture of the BJP henceforth more and more. Attacks on those transporting livestock, on Dalits and minorities and on those who disagree with the BJP ideology and imposition of curbs on free voices and people's choices will not help the party any longer. This is the real take away here.