An answer to no question!

The last man in AP knows that the Congress and the TDP are vertically divided on the basis of region on the question of bifurcation. The BJP is also divided but its stakes in Seemandhra are not very high. The national leadership of the party is confident of convincing Seemandhra leaders of its stand in favour of Telangana statehood. But the BJP high command is not inclined to give full credit for the formation of Telangana State to the Congress. It would like to see the UPA-II fail in its bid though it does not want to retract on its policy once again. The CPI, the TRS and Telangana leaders of the Congress are in agreement with the Centre’s decision. The MIM is also not completely averse to the creation of Telangana State but it would not compromise on the status of Hyderabad. The proposed Union Territory status and law and order being overseen by the Centre are not acceptable to the MIM. A majority of Congress leaders of Anantapur and Kurnool would like the two districts merged in Telangana State. MIM also endorses this view. The same opinions have been made known by way of communication or non-communication to the GoP before the deadline ended on Tuesday evening. The CPI, the T Congress and the TRS have sent their opinion, the TDP, YSRCP and the CPM, the only party in the State which has been consistent in this regard beside, of course, the TRS, have refused to send any communication. As a result, the final positions are that while the YSRCP, Seemandhra Congress and the CPM are absolutely against bifurcation, the TDP which is purportedly not against the division is vehemently opposed to the way the decision is sought to be implemented without constructive dialogue with all stakeholders. It refused to send its opinion.

If Naidu’s intentions become suspect and if the TDP leaders in Telangana conclude that they would have no chance of winning in election, nobody would wait for Naidu’s permission to leave. Rumours have it that most of the sitting TDP MLAs in Telangana are in touch with the Congress and TRS leaders

The ball is back to square one once again. Unless a true leader, who is not led by emotional crowds but who can lead the people, stands up to take charge, this pernicious game would go on till 2014 general elections and even after. Non-politicians like Ashok Babu, APNGO leader, would pose like ‘Poundraka Vasudev’ and say the established politicians have become irrelevant and so he would take up the mantle of the savior. That is not a welcome prospect.

Let us see who the true leader could be. A young and fresh leader who has no political baggage, YS Jaganmohan Reddy (YSJ) is better placed to accept the reality and convince the people of Seemandhra of the inevitability of parting of ways. But he was among the first to choose to go back on a neutral stand and pitch for united AP. It has made the Congress leaders in Seemandhra more rigid. In the prevailing emotive atmosphere anyone who expresses agreement with the decision to bifurcate would forfeit the confidence of the people. Chief Minister Kiran Kumar Reddy likes to launch a party and be its undisputed leader with no high command to ask questions. He has made some bold, well-timed statements castigating the Centre. Speaking disparagingly of the party high command that has appointed him chief minister of a big State like AP calls for a stubborn and no-nonsense attitude. Kiran Reddy’s image has gone up by several notches but is it enough to sustain a new political party?

True, Congress leaders in Seemandhra direly need an outfit. But is Kiran capable of providing the financial and political muscle? Does he possess the resourcefulness to give action programmes continuously to leaders and workers to make the new party fighting fit within the limited time available before the looming hustings?

There are leaders in the Congress and the TDP who argue that Kiran Reddy has been following the script written by his high command and he is not a real rebel. There is no way to confirm or reject it. But nobody could have stopped Kiran Reddy from stepping down when the CWC resolved in favour of creating a separate State of Telangana or when the UPA-II accepted the recommendation of the CWC with which he professes to violently disagree. He chose to sit tight in his office claiming to fight from within. What all one can say is that there is something suspicious about the young chief minister. He is either too clever by half or a plain indecisive politician who cannot follow the dictates of his heart. In any case, Kiran Reddy cannot don the role of an upright politician who can bring solace to the Telugu-speaking people since he has become unacceptable to the people of Telangana. K Chandrasekhara Rao (KCR) cannot fit into this role since his party’s single-point agenda is the creation of Telangana. Further, he cannot convince anyone in Seemandhra where he enjoys the distinction of being the most hated politician. Venkaiah Naidu, a national leader of a party that is inconsequential in his home State, cannot make any difference. The CPM and the CPI are both left in a lurch. They could have mattered a bit if they had been together. With the Left divided on the question of division of the State, it is not in a position to influence the outcome.

The only leader left is Chandrababu Naidu, the TDP supremo. Naidu has a track record to reckon with. He cannot vacate Telangana as YSJ did in a jiffy. He too has a gambler’s instincts. But he is older, wiser and hence slower. Naidu is in a bind not knowing what to do next. He has been managing all these days since he is the tallest among the TDP leaders who have limited options. He is experienced and intelligent enough to know that the TDP leaders in both Telangana and Seemandhra are watching him keenly to understand his mind. They would get desperate as elections approach. Every politician worth his salt would have Plan-B ready even while following Plan-A. If Naidu’s intentions become suspect and if the TDP leaders in Telangana conclude that they would have no chance of winning in election, nobody would wait for Naidu’s permission to leave. Rumours have it that most of the sitting TDP MLAs in Telangana are in touch with the Congress and TRS leaders. They were seen talking to them animatedly after the recent meeting of the TDP leaders where Naidu was perceived as tilting towards the Andhra viewpoint. Naidu is not a novice not to guess it. He has been observing the war of words between Payyavula Kesav and Erraballi Dayakar Rao. Such internecine squabbles have been going on in both the TDP and the Congress. There cannot be unanimity where there is conflict of interests. Making an attempt to reconcile the irreconcilable calls for a brave heart. If it is done with a sense of honesty and in a methodical way, the chances of success would be greater.

Though Naidu has been taking bold decisions, such as accepting the inevitability of bifurcation, his honest view is given away at excruciating and unguarded moments. Somehow, the impression that in his heart of hearts he is against statehood for Telangana and he has been forced by circumstances to take such a stand to protect his party’s interests has been persisting. In this kind of polarizing politics, only parties that decide to support one region or other would survive and those who profess to be supporting both would recede, at least temporarily.

If Naidu’s intentions become suspect and if the TDP leaders in Telangana conclude that they would have no chance of winning in election, nobody would wait for Naidu’s permission to leave. Rumours have it that most of the sitting TDP MLAs in Telangana are in touch with the Congress and TRS leaders

But if one can defy the popular trend and swim against the tide by educating people, it would be a real contribution to the lives of the Telugus. But this cannot be done by ordinary politicians. It needs a tall and sincere politician. Naidu vaguely appears to fit the description.

Like Sonia Gandhi, the Congress president, Naidu too cannot go back on the T tangle. Both can only move forward. Naidu would never like to be a co-traveler with Sonia. They have to tread separate paths even if the destination is the same. Naidu declared his two-eye theory. Sonia’s Congress also follows the same policy without saying so. If Sonia succeeds in steering the Telangana project clear of the numerous pitfalls, her party will have a fair chance in Telangana and a bleak one in Andhra. The double incumbency is sure to peg the Congress down, making it impossible to score a hat- trick. If Naidu can try out a formula which gives him credit and a few seats in both the regions, he would be a critical player both in the State and at the Centre. In any case, his position would be certainly better than what it would be if he continued with the present negative policy. His credibility as a leader of national standing would be restored.

What all he has to do is to realize that the two-eye policy would not suffice. The goodwill between two regions has been exhausted and a lot of ill-will has been deposited in its place. It would be well-nigh impossible to rule the State if it is forcibly kept united, however desirable it is. Naidu must have championed integration during electioneering in 2009. The story would have been entirely different, as we have noted on several occasions earlier. Having accepted the prospect of division and entered into electoral alliance with the TRS, Naidu should have developed a two-vision theory instead of a two-eye theory. A dream merchant that he is, selling a beautiful dream each to the people of Andhra and Telangana is no big deal for him. Naidu has got the wherewithal to get roadmaps for development of the two States prepared. Acknowledged as he is as a visionary, this would go well with his core personality which he has been negating by mouthing welfare slogans and indulging in competitive populism. Despite the bad patch he hit for two terms, the Third Front would have offered him a leadership role had he not accepted Narendra Modi’s olive branch.

All these years only negative vibrations have been influencing the lives of Telugus. Bifurcation has a positive aspect too. It is understandably difficult to talk about it when people are otherwise tuned. But a leader like Naidu, who dared to unbundle the electricity board in the face of massive resistance from the Left Front comprising nine radical parties and the Congress headed by YS Rajasekhara Reddy, going against popular sentiment and reviving ‘Jai Andhra’ spirit would have been a real challenge. If only his two-eye theory was truthful, his two- vision theory would be successful. Leaders tend to underestimate people and think only the talk of freebies and doles would impress the latter. Development language also is appreciated by the common people. Naidu could have tried it out or he could have openly worked for a united AP abandoning Telangana, for the time being, like YSJ did. Maybe it is too late to be honest and bold.