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US Fed Decision LIVE: Powell’s call, Dot Plot may guide sensex amid global uncertainty
US Fed likely to hold rates steady amid Israel-Iran tensions. Investors eye Powell’s speech and dot plot guidance for future interest rate outlook.
As global investors await the outcome of the US Federal Reserve's crucial two-day FOMC meeting, stock markets are trading higher, buoyed by expectations that the Fed will keep benchmark interest rates steady at 4.25%–4.50%. The policy decision, set to be announced on Wednesday, 18 June 2025, comes amid rising geopolitical tensions due to the Israel-Iran conflict.
The spotlight will be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who is expected to speak at 2:30 p.m. EST (12:00 midnight IST). Indian investors can watch the live stream on the Fed’s official website and YouTube channel. The market is also watching closely for the release of the Fed's “dot plot” — a chart mapping policymakers’ projections for future interest rate movements.
Despite a mild uptick in US core inflation in May, analysts anticipate the Fed will maintain a cautious tone, holding rates for a fourth consecutive meeting. Powell had earlier signaled no rush to cut rates, citing persistent inflation risks and tariff-related uncertainties.
US President Donald Trump also commented ahead of the decision, stating, “Powell probably won’t cut today,” reflecting the broader market sentiment.
According to Vaqarjaved Khan, Senior Fundamental Analyst at Angel One Ltd., the Fed is expected to maintain its projection of two rate cuts in 2025, with the first likely to occur in September. “Given resilient labor market data and moderating inflation, the Fed may hold rates for now but adjust its economic projections in light of global risks,” he said.
US equities responded positively ahead of the announcement. As of 10:12 a.m. EDT, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.30% at 42,336.40, the Nasdaq rose 0.44% to 19,606.01, and the S&P 500 gained 0.42% at 6,007.81.
With rate cuts potentially delayed and inflation forecasts under watch, Powell’s tone and the dot plot’s trajectory will likely set the tone for global markets through the second half of 2025.
